Posts Tagged ‘implied volatility’

Volatility for an options trader can basically mean two different things.  There is historical volatility and implied volatility.

Actual historical volatility is the objective measurement of the past movement of a security expressed in annualized terms.  Typically, this compares prices on a close-to-close basis. It is usually different for different time periods.  For example, the 30-day historical volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is 11.5% currently.  The 100-day actual vol has been 14.5%.  And the last ten days?  The actual 10-day historical vol is 4.15%.  That certainly paints a picture that the market (in recent sessions) has not been moving much at all. (more…)

Quiksilver stock and options volume Quiksilver, Inc. (NYSE:ZQK) was an unlikely name to come across our radar in Thursday’s trading. The apparel company, which caters to the young surfing, snowboarding, and skateboarding “dudes,” saw volume of close to eight million shares trade.  This compares to average daily volume of less than one million. The shares were also markedly higher on the day, up more than 20%.

Why all the excitement?  The rumor mill, which was churning with speculation that ZQK could be acquired by PPR, the French retail group responsible for such brands as Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, and Puma. Analysts speculate that the firm could be looking for new business opportunities once it unloads its Conforama furniture unit.

Options activity was also running way above average on the day. Within a half hour of the closing bell, roughly 6,000 options had changed hands, the large majority of which were on the call side. While 6,000 may not seem like much, it is a far cry from average daily option volume.  In the third quarter, roughly 150 contracts traded per day in ZQK (on average). (more…)

Coca-Cola options activityAn investor may be expecting reduced volatility in Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), as evidenced by a large options trade that crossed the tape early Thursday.  In the past year, KO has traded in a range between roughly $49.50 and $65 (and is near the top of this range currently). A volatility trader may be expecting this range to narrow in the coming months and is hoping to benefit from less dramatic price action in the shares of the soft drink giant.

In early trading on Thursday, blocks of nearly 8,000 contracts traded in the January 2012 67.50 call and the 65 strike puts.  The calls changed hands for $3.40 apiece and the puts for $6.10 apiece.  Both traded on the bid price, suggesting they were sold. What’s more, the options likely traded to open as open interest was limited at the beginning of the session. (more…)

General Motors (NYSE:GM) Options Start Trading

Wednesday, December 1st, 2010

Ford and GM options trading Twelve days ago, we had the much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) of General Motors (NYSE:GM). Monday of this week, options on the Detroit-based automaker were (again) listed for trading.

One might have thought that the new GM options would trade with a higher implied volatility than its competitor Ford Motor (NYSE:F), which is free of any government assistance and in the hands of the public. One would, however, be wrong. (more…)

Netflix earnings and options trading Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reported earnings Wednesday night that were viewed favorably by the Street overall.  The stock was up 13% on Thursday to $173.  Obviously, traders who were long NFLX stock or long a lot of deltas through a combination of long calls and/or short puts fared well in their portfolios for the most part. Conversely, those who were short delta exposure probably had a tough morning.

What gets interesting is analyzing what happened to the traders who played the ferocity of the move (otherwise known as the volatility) as opposed to a specific direction.  Traders could have done this by buying or selling straddles or strangles. A straddle consists of a long call and a long put purchased at the same strike price.  A strangle is a long call and long put at different strike prices (where typically the put strike is below the stock price and the call strike is above). (more…)

Long Straddles Predict Volatility Before weekly options expanded to include weeklys on individual equities, it was rare for options expiration and corporate earnings reports to fall during the same week.  One week, at-the-money (ATM) options have very little time value, obviously, large gamma, and negative theta.  With such little time to go to expiration, the options market can provide a clear signal as to what it is predicting for the magnitude of stock returns around earnings events.  This week of August expiration also includes earnings concentrated in the tech and retail sectors.

In the technology space, Network Appliance (NASDAQ:NTAP), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), and Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) all report throughout the week.

Retailers TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT), and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) are all on Tuesday, with Target (NYSE:TGT) and Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) following later in the week.

It is relatively clean to be able to look at the ATM long straddles (the simultaneous purchase of the same-strike call and put) and predict what degree of movement is expected.  Remember the straddle doesn’t predict direction, only degree of the anticipated move.

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A couple of weeks into this quarter’s round of reports and the overall results seem positive so far.  At least that seems to be how the market has interpreted them.  At the end of the day, when it comes to investing, it’s all about a stock’s relative value (for most of us, anyway).  Earnings results can make or break a stock’s price trajectory, accelerating a current trend or reversing it.

Since June 12, which was the start of this earnings season, the S&P 500 has risen from 1070 to its current level of about 1105.  While the broad index has managed to get above its 20- and 50- day simple moving averages (SMA), it still has yet to clear and hold above the 200-day SMA, which is currently 1,114.3.

This is in addition to resistance the index may encounter up around the 1,130 level, which was the high back on the 21 of June.  The reality of all of this is that we are currently trading just above most of June’s levels, but far below the highs of around 1220 visited in April.  While the majority of stocks seem to be meeting or beating estimates, there are a few areas where growth is just not there or a company is guiding lower.

Top line or actual gross sales/revenue seems to be the focus of many market participants. After all, a company can only cut costs so much. Without a real increase in revenue, there may not be much of a reason for companies to hire new employees, which is another looming specter for the markets.  By the way, non-farm payrolls will be released next Friday ahead of the opening bell.

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Monsanto (NYSE:MON) is always one of my favorite stocks to watch, and I enjoy listening to their earnings conference call even more.  Earnings are expected to be announced on June 30.  With 15 analysts covering MON, the consensus per-share estimate is $0.80, and the high and low estimates are $0.85 and $0.75, respectively.

Monsanto is a world leader in specialized seed production and was the creator of the glyphosate based herbicide Roundup.  This product used to be a rose but appears to have become a thorn in MON’s side, losing market share to cheaper Chinese versions since its patent protection expired.  The good news is that the Supreme Court recently lifted a ban on Monsanto’s Genetically Modified Roundup-Resistant Alfalfa seed.  The company also announced a three-year, $1 billion share buyback effective July 1, 2010.  MON also declared a quarterly dividend of 26.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend is payable on July 30, 2010, to shareowners of record on July 9, 2010.

On June 9, MON said they are “working on a revitalized product strategy to bring more choices to farmer customers, offering them the premium opportunity the company’s products create.”  With this, they projected mid-teens earnings growth beyond this fiscal year.   I’m curious to hear more details on their strategy. (more…)

Watch Out for Fast Markets

Friday, May 28th, 2010

Cheetah, high speedGiven the current market environment, it seems like a good time to offer some quick tips for trading a volatile stock in the options market.  Generally speaking, when markets are moving quickly, chances are that the options markets (as well as the stock markets) will experience wider bid-ask spreads.  While this can obviously create some slippage risk in stocks, the options markets can experience a much higher bid-ask spread ratio on a percentage basis, especially if the underlying stock is thinly traded.  This is in addition to potential wide swings in implied volatility that could affect options prices without the stock moving much at all.

Because options derive their price from the price of the underlying, there should be some link to the price of the underlying and the prices of the options that trade on it.  While large delta options (.70+ calls and -.70+ puts) tend to more closely mimic the movements of the underlying stock, at-the-money and out-of-the-money options will typically be more susceptible to influence from changes in volatility and may have wider bid-ask spreads on a percentage basis when stocks are moving fast.  (Remember that options prices are generally much cheaper than stock, but the bid-ask spreads are typically wider).

Here are some suggestions when trading in fast moving, high volatility markets: (more…)

Roller coasterSeeing as how the broad market has been moving lower for about six days now (the Dow Jones was very flat on May 17th), some traders who may have a longer-term vision or believe there will be a bounce from here may be able to use elevated volatility to their advantage.   The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a general indicator of implied volatility in the options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX).  With the VIX up at almost 45%, which is a new 52-week high, options are relatively high priced compared to where they have been for the past year.

What this means for investors is that they have to be extra careful when purchasing options (calls specifically). Long options have a positive vega and volatility (reflected in the VIX) tends to decrease as stocks move higher and increase as stocks move lower (as a general rule).  These fluctuations in volatility can be helpful or hurtful so traders need to be hyper-aware of their surroundings…

I say this because often, when markets are selling off sharply, some traders will want to take a long position as they hope for a rebound.  After six days of selling in the Dow Jones and a two-plus standard deviation move, this thesis may be becoming more common as an increasing number of traders appear to be looking for a bounce.  Of course we don’t know if and when this bounce will come and with the Dow and S&P falling below key technical levels, there could be even more risk to the downside. Typically, during market pullbacks, volatility is screaming higher. (more…)

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