Posts Tagged ‘Goldman Sachs’

Morgan Stanley vs. Goldman Sachs

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Over the last few years, it was almost taken for granted that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) was the cream of the crop when it came to investment banks. Well, after its respective earnings announcements this past week, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) outdid its rival. There are headlines going around like, “Morgan Stanley Outshines Goldman Sachs in Trading.” The one place this was apparent was in equity trading where Goldman Sachs had net revenue of $235 million compared to $1.4 billion for Morgan Stanley.  Morgan Stanley also seemed to outperform in investment banking.

In my opinion, one quarter does not mean Morgan Stanley has overtaken Goldman Sachs as the best investment bank in the world. GS still has a market cap that far exceeds it. However, it does beg the question, “Which one is the better investment over the next year?”  There are some points that are in Morgan Stanley’s favor.

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Natural Gas MeterWilliams Companies (NYSE:WMB) was given a solid vote of confidence on Friday, as Goldman Sachs upped its rating on the natural gas company to “conviction buy” from “buy.” The brokerage said it was placing WMB on its conviction buy list “with 35% total upside to our $28, 12-month target price. An investment in WMB,” Goldman noted, “provides a superior ‘Growth & Income’ vehicle for today’s uncertain market … valuation is compelling, trading at a [five times] 2010 EBITDA multiple versus peers at 8x and its two-year average of 7x.”

WMB moved slightly higher on the day while the broader market hovered near the breakeven zone. Since May 25, WMB shares have retraced 18% of their downside; the stock lost a quarter of its value between its late-April peak and its late-May valley. Is the selling pressure over for WMB shares? Does Goldman Sachs have the courage of its “conviction?”

While traditional brokers are confined to variations of “buy,” “hold,” and “sell,” traders in the options market have many tools at their disposal. Option strategies can be fine-tuned depending on an investor’s level of optimism (or pessimism) and can be impacted by forces other than just the stock itself (including time and changes in volatility).

*Prices given as of Friday afternoon. WMB was trading at $21.36. (more…)

Options Traders View Things Differently

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Option Traders Have a Different ViewWhile stock traders basically can only take a long or a short view on an underlying stock or ETF, options traders are given much more flexibility in the way they invest and assume risk.  Headlines can be motivators for many investors to buy, sell, or hold, and they can also create, change, and/or exacerbate sentiments and manias, both bullish and bearish, which can add to volatility in the marketplace and consequently the profit/loss profiles of many investors.

Stock traders, whether long or short, will have one-to-one exposure to each dollar change in the stock itself.  Because of this, stock traders may have to be more precise in their thesis and or timing of their trades.  Options traders certainly need to be correct as well, but with some strategies, options traders can be only “partially correct” and still achieve success. Let me explain.

Let’s assume you were bullish on Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) as a stock trader, but you were a bit nervous about the sector, FINREG, and the company’s current legal situation.  Of course, one option is to buy the stock at $139.00, which gives you unlimited upside and $139.00 of downside risk.  For every dollar move in the stock, you will gain/lose $1.00 for every share you own. Therefore, if you decided to purchase 100 shares, you would gain/lose $100.00 for every dollar advance/decline in the stock. (more…)

Trading FloorWhen evaluating a trade, some investors look at the volume in the underlying stock as well as open interest, the bid/ask spread, and option volume in order to ascertain if liquidity is adequate. Some stocks tend to have more robust options volume than others, but “heavier” options volume does not necessarily mean the stock is of higher quality. Sometimes, we come across a stock that has seen notably heavy volume at one strike compared to another.

Wednesday, in Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS), the June 50 calls saw about 14,000 contracts hit the tape by noon central time. With open interest of just 3,200, this volume likely traded to open and appeared to be initiated by buyers. Volume at this one strike was six times more than all of the volume across all other call and put strikes combined.

At first glance, one might think this is a reason to get into a trade. After all, if someone was confident enough to buy 14,000 of the June 50 calls, the stock must be going higher. This assumption can be dangerous, because there is of course no way of knowing for sure which way a stock will move … or when. (more…)

BIG drop in Goldman Sachs – GS

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Goldman Sachs just dropped off a cliff falling over 2 ½ points in about 4 minutes.

This stock has been on an absolute tear and it hit a new 52-week high earlier today.  I cannot find any news for the sell-off. However, 100,000 shares were traded during the decline and I believe this may be a case of a lack of liquidity filling in behind the stocks advance, leaving it vulnerable to a pull back.

The market, as a whole, has not responded to GS giving back all of today’s gains. If recent financial leader, Goldman continues to fall, it may prove difficult for the market to maintain its 1.7% advance.

With August almost in the books I believe it is worthwhile to look at some specific sectors and stocks relative to the major market averages.

For a reference point the SPX index started the year at a level of 903.25.  So with today’s close at 1028.93 the overall market is up almost 14%.  It is more impressive to remember that on March 9th the index closed at 676.53, after hitting a intra-day low of 666.79 (up 54% from intra-day low)

On the sector front the best performing sector has been Info Tech up almost 40% YTD.

Within the highest weighted Tech companies Apple (AAPL) stands out,  up almost 100% .  Google (GOOG) a more pedestrian 51%.  Microsoft and Intel 27% and 38% respectively.

Also a leading sector the Materials sector has enjoyed just over a 30% YTD return

Freeport McMoran (FCX) a copper and gold company stands 167% higher than the start of the year!

Heavy weight Monsanto (MON) is only better by 18%

Consumer Discretionary names as a sector are up by 23.6% from the start of the year.  This sector as it is driven by consumers has definite winners and losers.  McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) which was a relative bastion of safety in the last quarter of 2008 is actually down9.8% on the year.  This is likely because investors have rotated out of safety into higher beta higher risk names.

Ford (F) is back from the dead, taking the pole position of the top 15 members in this sector up 237%.  Remember this company did not take government money as Chrysler and General Motors (MTLQQ.PK) did.  Amazon (AMZN), up 61%, Target  (TGT) up 37% and Kohls (KSS) up 45%, are three retailers that compare favorably.

The consumer staples sector is higher by only 3% as investors have rotated out of traditional safety stocks.  Proctor Gamble (PG) is down 13% Wal Mart (WMT) is down almost 9% and Coca-Cola (KO) is up only 8%.

Lastly Financials are up 17% for the year.  This sector has had the biggest thrill ride at the lows it was down over 50%, from the lows it is up 143%!

Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 94% to lead the charge

American Experess (AXP) is higher by 84% as the consumer is still using the little green cards.

In the Banking subsector Wells Fargo (WFC) is still down on the year losing 7.3%

Citigroup (C) still has issues down 22%

Bank of America (BAC)  has recovered 27%

And J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is up a respectable 36% which is great by most measures, unfortunately they measure vs. Goldman Sachs typically.  So Jamie Dimon is probably disappointed.

The next move in the overall market is anyone’s guess.  The 10 day historical vol is calculated today at 10.79%.  The VIX is stubbornly staying near the 25% level, possibly indicating we are entering a more volatile trading environment into the last 4 months of the year.  The more dispersion between sectors, and between stocks in performance the more “normal” trading will be.

Remember the stock market is the ultimate forward looking indicator of future cash flows and expected growth for the economy and individual companies.

There is no better indicator out there.

The top three headlines in the Money and Investing section of the WSJ today are:

Regulators Examine Goldman’s Trade Tips

BofA Denies Misleading Its Investors on Bonuses

Charles Schwab takes on Cuomo

When markets drop as they did in 2008 the public wants villains and the media seems to have an endless supply. Today’s serving of news is a course in “evil” banks and brokers.

What I find interesting is the market’s reaction to these headlines.  The mini S&P 500 futures are actually predicting higher – opening up over half a percent.

This is likely due to the fact that the market is forward-looking, despite the headlines, and the misdeeds of 2008 are in the past. The crowd may still want someone to blame for the losses of last year, but it’s important to remember that last year’s transgressions have very little to do with forward earnings for companies and future prospects for the economy.

Stocks on the Move

Monday, November 10th, 2008

A very negative article on General Motors (GM) appeared in Barron’s over the weekend – it basically stated the company is all-but-guaranteed to need a massive bailout ($50 Billion was referenced). Such a bailout would come with equity ownership stakes for the government.

All this is thought to be extremely negative for current shareholders and the periodical advises avoiding the stock. The shares are down around 30% in the early going to around $3/share.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is down again to the low seventies. Barclays’ analysts slashed fourth-quarter earnings estimates to a loss of $2.50/share. Many rumors are swirling as to whether Goldman will need a strategic merger, be taken private, or will split the company in two – separate trading and advisory companies. The options are currently priced at a133% volatility in November, which implies a greater-than 20% move in the next two weeks.

Google (GOOG) is a drag on the tech sector today. Earnings estimates were lowered on the search giant as well, with macro weakness blamed for the reductions.

And finally, American International Group (AIG) announced a $24.5 billion loss for the third quarter. The bigger story is that the size of the taxpayer bailout here has been expanded to $150 billion from $123 billion.

All this negative news has taken the wind out of the market as a whole. The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) is down 1%. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now down slightly on the day, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is still positive, up 50 points.

–Steve Claussen

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