Posts Tagged ‘C’

Citibank (C) option strategies Jim Cramer sounded the bullish horn on Citigroup (NYSE:C) Tuesday night, telling his Mad Money viewers that the beleaguered banking name is “the most undervalued bank in America.”  The CNBC host also said Citi “remains my favorite speculation [stock].” Cramer did add the caveat that investors will need to be patient, as the stock probably won’t really begin to show strength until the U.S. government is finished selling off its C shares.

C shares haven’t traded above $10 since November 2008 (amid the financial market meltdown) and have barely peeked above the $5 level since January 2009. The company is still keeping afloat, however; its last two earnings reports have been profitable.  What’s more, Citi’s mid-July earnings report topped expectations by four cents, or 80%.

We have outlined two option strategies below, one for investors who are in Cramer’s bullish camp and one for those who expect Citigroup’s range-bound price action to continue.  For the bulls, we have a long-term call and for the bears, a put ratio spread.

These are not trading recommendations, merely examples of different strategies for educational purposes. The prices are taken as of Wednesday afternoon, when C shares were trading at $3.68, down three cents on the day. For a full dissection of the strategies including profit/loss information, continue reading. (more…)

Earnings Season Survival Guide

Monday, July 12th, 2010
Buy, sell, hold?

Buy, sell, hold?

The days of reckoning are upon us!  So earnings season officially kicks off today with Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) report.  CSX Corporation (NYSE:CSX) and Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) are on today’s schedule as well.  As I write this at 6:00 a.m. Monday morning, futures in the S&P, DJX and Nasdaq are lower after a week’s worth of gains.

I wanted to take a couple of quick minutes today to highlight some things to remember and consider during earnings season as you make your decisions to buy, sell or hold.  These things are also important to remember if you plan on employing an options strategy.  Some high-profile companies that are scheduled to report this week are:

  • INTC, YUM and FAST on Tuesday
  • MAR on Wednesday
  • AMD, JPM and GOOG on Thursday
  • BAC, GCI, C and GE on Friday

There are many others reporting; the above issues are simply some of the more heavily followed.  If you are wondering when a company of interest reports earnings, check out the OptionsHouse Research tab to locate the next earnings date under the “Events Calendar.”  If none is posted, go to the company’s website, as some corporations may announce changes close to its report date or wait to disclose their exact earnings date.

Now that you know the relevant earnings date for your stocks, here are some factors to examine when deciding how to proceed:

(more…)

From Trading Stocks to Trading Options

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Balancing actAs everyone knows, most investors continue to use stocks (as opposed to options) for their primary investment tool.  Although options volume continues to grow each year, there are still a lot of people who do not understand what all the fuss is about.  Well hopefully, I can give you a quick rundown of the reasons investors should be versed in both stock and options strategies.  By “versed,” I mean educated in how options work and the potential benefits (and risks) they provide when used correctly.  I do not mean, “just try and figure it out by making real trades without knowing what you are doing.”

In order to move along, I will skip the super-basics:  What is a call? What is a put?  What is expiration? etc.  If you need to brush up on these mechanics go to The Options Industry Council. Here the option novice will find the information needed to understand this blog.

How Options Compare to Stocks:

1. The potential for increased return on investment by risking less capital.

Prices in examples given are as of Monday, June 14.

If you expect a stock to move within a defined time frame, you can buy in-the-money (ITM) options that would express this view but require less capital than buying the stock on margin.  For example, if you think that Citigroup (NYSE:C) is going to be trading as high as $5 by the middle of September, you have two choices: (more…)

The markets are looking fairly strong this morning after data showed consumer spending of personal income was basically flat compared to the prior month. This, in addition to a slower savings rate among Americans and a flattish reading on inflation, seems to be having a soothing effect on the market.

Personal spending did increase slightly by .3%, and consumer spending comprises about 70% of overall demand in the U.S. economy.

Over the past couple days; a morning rally followed by profit taking in the afternoon has been par for the course. Some say this is indicative of an impending sell-off, as short-term traders are unwilling to hold positions overnight. We will see if this theory holds true.

Monday Morning Options Action

The U.S. treasury announced it will be selling its $7.7 billion common-stock stake in Citigroup (C) over the course of the year with the help of Morgan Stanley, C shares are off 2.7% to $4.18. The options volume is extremely heavy in Citigroup today, but this is not uncommon for the stock.

Other heavy options volume was focused in MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), where we saw the May 15 – April 14 call spread being bought 4500 times for .05. This could be a trader rolling his long-call position from April to May, but this is only speculation.

I mention this speculation in WFR because, back on 3/25/10, there was a large percentage of calls traded versus puts, more than 8 to 1. Earnings announcements are expected on 4/22/2010 with a consensus estimate of $0.05 per share.

It can often be a puzzle trying to figure out the impetus for a certain trade when evaluating large options volume; things are not always as they seem. This means that just because there are large amounts of calls being bought, traders may not be making straight bullish bets. They may have an underlying short stock position or short delta from another options position.

As for WFR, we are not seeing any major news today and the stock is currently down $.03 to $14.65 (price as of midday Monday).

Remember there are a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we are seeing some heavy options activity today. Also remember that options can be bought or sold and volume does not indicate which.

These are a few of my team’s observations this morning. If you have others you would like to add to this list, please feel free to add them in the comments.

Photo Credit: Steve Wampler

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s been another low volatility morning in the markets.  All the major indices have been fluttering around unchanged and looking a bit tired as volume remains relatively low.

Although the initial direction appeared bullish following a strong retail sales number, the broad market quickly took a turn to the downside as consumer sentiment declined to 72.50 in March from a reading of 73.6 in February.  Economists were expecting the March sentiment reading to come in at 74.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) is creeping higher to 18.4% and the CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) also edging slightly higher to 19.77%, even with the minor moves in the underlying indices.

We saw a likely buyer of 2,500 of the Potash (NYSE: POT) January 2012 calls hit the tape this morning, which could be perceived as bullish as Potash hiked its profit outlook for the first quarter, which is being reflected in the stock price; POT is currently up 7% at $125.   This is also on a day when the merger war between industry peers Yara International, CF Industries (NYSE: CF), and Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) seems to be coming to an end.

Remember there are a few hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we are seeing some heavy options activity today.  Also remember that options can be bought or sold and volume does not indicate which side the trades are on:

C: $4.07 down $0.1100 or 2.63% volume: 483.43 million shares
Mar10 4.00 Calls: volume over 86764, versus open interest of 754012
Mar10 4.00 Puts: volume over 70451, versus open interest of 433712

USO: $40.03 down $0.0200 or 0.05% volume: 3.74 million shares
Mar10 43.00 Calls: volume over 30108, versus open interest of 51832
Mar10 40.00 Calls: volume over 12590, versus open interest of 47195

TRA: $46.16 down $0.7400 or 1.58% volume: 14.24 million shares
Mar10 46.00 Puts: volume over 18486, versus open interest of 19532

AAPL: $226.66 up $1.1600 or 0.51% volume: 7.21 million shares
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 17291, versus open interest of 29184

SVU: $17.03 up $0.9600 or 5.97% volume: 9.71 million shares
Apr10 17.50 Calls: volume over 16552, versus open interest of 3666

CF: $95.80 down $4.8100 or 4.78% volume: 5.43 million shares
Mar10 95.00 Puts: volume over 12567, versus open interest of 29059
Mar10 90.00 Puts: volume over 9898, versus open interest of 17247

AA: $13.67 up $0.0300 or 0.22% volume: 11.42 million shares
Apr10 12.00 Puts: volume over 12220, versus open interest of 28069

POT: $124.47 up $7.5410 or 6.45% volume: 8.64 million shares
Mar10 135.00 Calls: volume over 11703, versus open interest of 8481
Mar10 125.00 Calls: volume over 11122, versus open interest of 14945

NVDA:
$17.22 up $0.0250 or 0.15% volume: 6.28 million shares
Mar10 18.00 Calls: volume over 11203, versus open interest of 13984

F: $13.14 up $0.2305 or 1.79% volume: 46.09 million shares
Mar10 13.00 Calls: volume over 10632, versus open interest of 82714
Jan11 12.50 Puts: volume over 10102, versus open interest of 63772

CA:
$22.60 down $0.0600 or 0.26% volume: 1.29 million shares
Mar10 22.50 Puts: volume over 10050, versus open interest of 2690

EWY: $48.78 down $0.1700 or 0.35% volume: 0.67 million shares
Apr10 43.00 Puts: volume over 10000, versus open interest of 297

These are my team’s observations. If you have seen something else in your own analysis, please add your voice in the comments.

Photo Credit: Frankie Roberto

The NASDAQ , S&P 500 and Dow Jones are all struggling to maintain the anemic rally that has ensued for the past 1.5 weeks. Volume continues to dissipate in most major indices, SPY’s 14 day volume simple moving average has been on a downtrend since early-mid February.

Today’s options action has been focused, but not limited to, the financials, namely Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), American International Group (AIG) and Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF).

There is bullish call buying and put selling in BAC as well as call buyers in C, ahead of their 2 billion dollar trust preferred stock offering. AIG stock is extremely hard to borrow, and, on today’s rally, is generating heavy options activity. Traders who have a rough time shorting stock may consider using options to synthetically short the stock, if they desire to do so, although this comes at a price sometimes, as puts will likely be elevated in price.

Remember, there are a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we have already observed some heavy options activity today:

MSFT: $28.95 up $0.1500 or 0.52% volume: 23.66 million shares
Jan11 35.00 Calls: volume over 38989, versus Open Interest of 77689
Apr10 29.00 Calls: volume over 13802, versus Open Interest of 95028

BAC: $17.21 up $0.4100 or 2.44% volume: 140.84 million shares
Mar10 17.00 Calls: volume over 38690, versus Open Interest of 169867
Mar10 16.00 Puts: volume over 32104, versus Open Interest of 163423

AIG: $35.46 up $2.6900 or 8.21% volume: 50.12 million shares
Mar10 40.00 Calls: volume over 27321, versus Open Interest of 15988
Mar10 45.00 Calls: volume over 21344, versus Open Interest of 5680

ZION: $20.33 up $1.0700 or 5.56% volume: 8.87 million shares
Apr10 17.00 Puts: volume over 25418, versus Open Interest of 26352
Apr10 19.00 Puts: volume over 10974, versus Open Interest of 4794

AAPL: $224.70 up $1.6800 or 0.75% volume: 10.73 million shares,
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 19595, versus Open Interest of 26386
Mar10 220.00 Puts: volume over 19346, versus Open Interest of 13756

XOM: $67.00 up $0.2150 or 0.32% volume: 13.80 million shares
Apr10 70.00 Calls: volume over 19572, versus Open Interest of 56065

MS: $29.76 up $0.7100 or 2.44% volume: 16.57 million shares
Mar10 30.00 Calls: volume over 17770, versus Open Interest of 28538

RIMM: $74.96 up $1.4100 or 1.92% volume: 9.04 million shares
Mar10 75.00 Calls: volume over 16323, versus Open Interest of 45709

GE: $16.50 up $0.0050 or 0.03% volume: 40.43 million shares
Mar10 17.50 Calls: volume over 15494, versus Open Interest of 148738

STI: $26.51 up $0.6800 or 2.63% volume: 8.30 million shares
Apr10 22.00 Puts: volume over 15360, versus Open Interest of 16713

These are my team’s observations. If you have observations to share, please add your voice in the comments.

What started as another flat day in the markets, is turning out to be a bullish one…Even though overall stock volume remains light, we are still seeing some heavy options activity.

Already, there has been quite a bit of spread activity all around with heavy action in Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). This is likely in reaction to an earlier announcement for a new routing system that is 12 times faster than Cisco’s competitors.  Ahead of the announcement, we actually saw the Jan 30 calls being sold, which could be interpreted as a move by many investors to take advantage of volatility.

Citigroup (C) is also much higher today and options traders are active there as well.

Remember, there are still a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we have already been seeing some heavy options activity early today.

Big Movers in Today’s Market:

GME: $18.50 up $0.0300 or 0.16% volume: 0.74 million shares
Jul10 21.00 Calls: volume over 22010, versus Open Interest of 8836
Apr10 17.00 Puts: volume over 11878, versus Open Interest of 1319

XLP: $27.53 up $0.0400 or 0.15% volume: 0.92 million shares
Jun10 26.00 Puts: volume over 19500, versus Open Interest of 9331

CMC: $17.38 up $1.1300 or 6.95% volume: 4.04 million shares
Mar10 17.50 Calls: volume over 17039, versus Open Interest of 19772

CSCO: $26.16 up $0.0250 or 0.10% volume: 48.81 million shares
Mar10 27.00 Calls: volume over 15863, versus Open Interest of 16764
Apr10 26.00 Calls: volume over 12968, versus Open Interest of 69724

AAPL: $223.69 up $4.6100 or 2.10% volume: 10.11 million shares
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 15179, versus Open Interest of 24745
Mar10 220.00 Calls: volume over 14629, versus Open Interest of 36850

XLK: $22.55 up $0.1200 or 0.53% volume: 4.02 million shares
Jan11 20.00 Puts: volume over 15000, versus Open Interest of 44430

XRT: $39.74 up $0.1290 or 0.33% volume: 2.79 million shares
Jun10 38.00 Puts: volume over 13001, versus Open Interest of 2211

BAC: $16.82 up $0.0799 or 0.48% volume: 56.11 million shares
Mar10 17.00 Calls: volume over 12499, versus Open Interest of 166550

UNG: $8.21 down $0.0500 or 0.61% volume: 4.08 million shares
Mar10 9.00 Calls: volume over 12185, versus Open Interest of 71909

RIMM: $74.32 up $0.9300 or 1.27% volume: 7.75 million shares
Mar10 75.00 Calls: volume over 11960, versus Open Interest of 49525

FRPT: $6.12 up $0.6420 or 11.72% volume: 1.56 million shares
Jun10 7.50 Calls: volume over 10039, versus Open Interest of 954

These are my team’s early morning observations. If there are other big moves you would like to see added to today’s list, please feel free to add your observations in the comments.

Are we having earnings déjà vu all over again?

Let’s review:

  • Last quarter the market hit a hiccup in the end of June, sold off from a June-closing high of 944 in the S&P 500 index, down to 880 as we entered Q2 earnings.
  • This quarter the market has retraced from a high of 1071 in September to 1025 last Friday.
  • The VIX in July spiked from a low of 25% in June to a nervous 31% just prior to Alcoa’s release.
  • This month the VIX spiked to a 29.5% on Friday after closing at a low of 23.08% in September.

Leading up to tomorrow’s earnings kick-off with Alcoa, the market rallied 1.5% yesterday after market close, and continues to replicate this again so far today.

This behavior is opposite of what we experienced 3 months ago. The market sold off immediately prior to the earnings and likely indicating an oversold condition. With the last couple of weeks trending lower, the shorts may have piled in again and created another oversold condition yet again. This time we are snapping back before we get any earnings confirmation of improving conditions. Volumes have been light and this may be a sign of a bumpier road through this earnings season.

Remember earnings begin tomorrow, however next week they begin in earnest, with heavyweight financials C, BAC, GS and GE all scheduled to announce along with tech titan INTC.

Lastly, when earnings come on expiration week, the short dated options can react dramatically to changes in the underlying price of the stocks. The flipside is the premium can decay immediately if those earnings numbers are not enough of a catalyst to move the stocks. The risk to long options is 100% of the premium paid. On short-dated options that risk can occur in a very short time. The reward is unlimited to the moves above strike plus the premium paid of the underlying stock prices.

With August almost in the books I believe it is worthwhile to look at some specific sectors and stocks relative to the major market averages.

For a reference point the SPX index started the year at a level of 903.25.  So with today’s close at 1028.93 the overall market is up almost 14%.  It is more impressive to remember that on March 9th the index closed at 676.53, after hitting a intra-day low of 666.79 (up 54% from intra-day low)

On the sector front the best performing sector has been Info Tech up almost 40% YTD.

Within the highest weighted Tech companies Apple (AAPL) stands out,  up almost 100% .  Google (GOOG) a more pedestrian 51%.  Microsoft and Intel 27% and 38% respectively.

Also a leading sector the Materials sector has enjoyed just over a 30% YTD return

Freeport McMoran (FCX) a copper and gold company stands 167% higher than the start of the year!

Heavy weight Monsanto (MON) is only better by 18%

Consumer Discretionary names as a sector are up by 23.6% from the start of the year.  This sector as it is driven by consumers has definite winners and losers.  McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) which was a relative bastion of safety in the last quarter of 2008 is actually down9.8% on the year.  This is likely because investors have rotated out of safety into higher beta higher risk names.

Ford (F) is back from the dead, taking the pole position of the top 15 members in this sector up 237%.  Remember this company did not take government money as Chrysler and General Motors (MTLQQ.PK) did.  Amazon (AMZN), up 61%, Target  (TGT) up 37% and Kohls (KSS) up 45%, are three retailers that compare favorably.

The consumer staples sector is higher by only 3% as investors have rotated out of traditional safety stocks.  Proctor Gamble (PG) is down 13% Wal Mart (WMT) is down almost 9% and Coca-Cola (KO) is up only 8%.

Lastly Financials are up 17% for the year.  This sector has had the biggest thrill ride at the lows it was down over 50%, from the lows it is up 143%!

Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 94% to lead the charge

American Experess (AXP) is higher by 84% as the consumer is still using the little green cards.

In the Banking subsector Wells Fargo (WFC) is still down on the year losing 7.3%

Citigroup (C) still has issues down 22%

Bank of America (BAC)  has recovered 27%

And J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is up a respectable 36% which is great by most measures, unfortunately they measure vs. Goldman Sachs typically.  So Jamie Dimon is probably disappointed.

The next move in the overall market is anyone’s guess.  The 10 day historical vol is calculated today at 10.79%.  The VIX is stubbornly staying near the 25% level, possibly indicating we are entering a more volatile trading environment into the last 4 months of the year.  The more dispersion between sectors, and between stocks in performance the more “normal” trading will be.

Remember the stock market is the ultimate forward looking indicator of future cash flows and expected growth for the economy and individual companies.

There is no better indicator out there.

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